Background Numerous efforts have been made to identify biomarkers for predicting the progression of dementia in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and recently, a comprehensive visual rating scale (CVRS) based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been validated to assess structural changes in the brain of elderly patients. Based on this, the present study investigated the use of CVRS for predicting dementia and elucidated its association with cognitive change in patients with MCI over a three-year follow-up. Methods We included 340 patients with MCI with more than one follow-up visit. Data were obtained from the Alzheimer’s disease Neuroimaging Initiative study. We assessed all the patients using CVRS and determined their progression to dementia during a follow-up period of over 3 years. The cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze hazard ratios (HRs) of CVRS for disease progression. Further, multiple cognitive measures of the patients over time were fitted using the random effect model to assess the effect of initial CVRS score on subsequent cognitive changes. Results Of 340 patients, 69 (20.2%) progressed to dementia and the median baseline score (interquartile range) of CVRS significantly differed between stable MCI and progressive MCI (9 (5–13) vs 13 (8–17), p<0.001). The initial CVRS score was independently associated with an increased risk of progression to dementia (HR 1.123, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.059–1.192). From 12 to 24 months, the effect of the interaction between CVRS and interval of follow-up visit on cognitive performance achieved significance (p<0.001). Conclusions Baseline CVRS predicted the progression to dementia in patients with MCI, and was independently associated with longitudinal cognitive decline.
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